Modern neural recording techniques such as two-photon imaging or Neuropixel probes allow to acquire vast time-series datasets with responses of hundreds or thousands of neurons. Contrastive learning is a powerful self-supervised framework for learning representations of complex datasets. Existing applications for neural time series rely on generic data augmentations and do not exploit the multi-trial data structure inherent in many neural datasets. Here we present TRACE, a new contrastive learning framework that averages across different subsets of trials to generate positive pairs. TRACE allows to directly learn a two-dimensional embedding, combining ideas from contrastive learning and neighbor embeddings. We show that TRACE outperforms other methods, resolving fine response differences in simulated data. Further, using in vivo recordings, we show that the representations learned by TRACE capture both biologically relevant continuous variation, cell-type-related cluster structure, and can assist data quality control.

Learning robust representations from unlabeled time series is crucial, and contrastive learning offers a promising avenue. However, existing contrastive learning approaches for time series often struggle to define meaningful similarities, tending to overlook inherent physical correlations and diverse, sequence-varying non-stationarity. This limits their representational quality and real-world adaptability. To address these limitations, we introduce AdaTS, a novel adaptive soft contrastive learning strategy. AdaTS offers a computationally efficient solution centered on dynamic instance-wise and temporal assignments that enhance time series representations by: (i) leveraging Time-Frequency Coherence to provide robust, physics-guided similarity measurements; (ii) preserving relative instance similarities through ordinal consistency learning; and (iii) adapting to sequencespecific non-stationarity with dynamic temporal assignments. AdaTS is designed as a pluggable module for standard contrastive frameworks, achieving accuracy improvements of up to 13.7% across diverse time series datasets and three state-ofthe-art contrastive frameworks while enhancing robustness under label scarcity.

The problem of (point) forecastingunivariate time series is considered.

The transformer models have been extensively used with good results in a wide area of machine learning applications including Large Language Models and image generation. Here, we inquire on the applicability of this approach to financial time series. We first describe the dataset construction for two prototypical situations: a mean reverting synthetic Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process on one hand and real S&P500 data on the other hand. Then, we present in detail the proposed Transformer architecture and finally we discuss some encouraging results. For the synthetic data we predict rather accurately the next move, and for the S&P500 we get some interesting results related to quadratic variation and volatility prediction.

We introduce OFTER, a time series forecasting pipeline tailored for mid-sized multivariate time series. OFTER utilizes the non-parametric models of k-nearest neighbors and Generalized Regression Neural Networks, integrated with a dimensionality reduction component. To circumvent the curse of dimensionality, we employ a weighted norm based on a modified version of the maximal correlation coefficient. The pipeline we introduce is specifically designed for online tasks, has an interpretable output, and is able to outperform several state-of-the art baselines. The computational efficacy of the algorithm, its online nature, and its ability to operate in low signal-to-noise regimes, render OFTER an ideal approach for financial multivariate time series problems, such as daily equity forecasting. Our work demonstrates that while deep learning models hold significant promise for time series forecasting, traditional methods carefully integrating mainstream tools remain very competitive alternatives with the added benefits of scalability and interpretability.

In the prior post we explained how clustering of time series data works. In this post we're going to do a deep dive into the code itself. Everything will be written in python, but most libraries have an R version. We will try to stay relatively high level but the code will have some useful resources if you're looking for more. Without further ado, let's dive in.

The demand of probabilistic time series forecasting has been recently raised in various dynamic system scenarios, for example, system identification and prognostic and health management of machines. To this end, we combine the advances in both deep generative models and state space model (SSM) to come up with a novel, data-driven deep probabilistic sequence model. Specially, we follow the popular encoder-decoder generative structure to build the recurrent neural networks (RNN) assisted variational sequence model on an augmented recurrent input space, which could induce rich stochastic sequence dependency. Besides, in order to alleviate the issue of inconsistency between training and predicting as well as improving the mining of dynamic patterns, we (i) propose using a hybrid output as input at next time step, which brings training and predicting into alignment; and (ii) further devise a generalized auto-regressive strategy that encodes all the historical dependencies at current time step. Thereafter, we first investigate the methodological characteristics of the proposed deep probabilistic sequence model on toy cases, and then comprehensively demonstrate the superiority of our model against existing deep probabilistic SSM models through extensive numerical experiments on eight system identification benchmarks from various dynamic systems. Finally, we apply our sequence model to a real-world centrifugal compressor sensor data forecasting problem, and again verify its outstanding performance by quantifying the time series predictive distribution.

The increased digitalisation and monitoring of the energy system opens up numerous opportunities % and solutions which can help to decarbonise the energy system. Applications on low voltage (LV), localised networks, such as community energy markets and smart storage will facilitate decarbonisation, but they will require advanced control and management. Reliable forecasting will be a necessary component of many of these systems to anticipate key features and uncertainties. Despite this urgent need, there has not yet been an extensive investigation into the current state-of-the-art of low voltage level forecasts, other than at the smart meter level. This paper aims to provide a comprehensive overview of the landscape, current approaches, core applications, challenges and recommendations. Another aim of this paper is to facilitate the continued improvement and advancement in this area. To this end, the paper also surveys some of the most relevant and promising trends. It establishes an open, community-driven list of the known LV level open datasets to encourage further research and development.

Reservoir computing (RC) offers efficient temporal data processing with a low training cost by separating recurrent neural networks into a fixed network with recurrent connections and a trainable linear network. The quality of the fixed network, called reservoir, is the most important factor that determines the performance of the RC system. In this paper, we investigate the influence of the hierarchical reservoir structure on the properties of the reservoir and the performance of the RC system. Analogous to deep neural networks, stacking sub-reservoirs in series is an efficient way to enhance the nonlinearity of data transformation to high-dimensional space and expand the diversity of temporal information captured by the reservoir. These deep reservoir systems offer better performance when compared to simply increasing the size of the reservoir or the number of sub-reservoirs. Low frequency components are mainly captured by the sub-reservoirs in later stage of the deep reservoir structure, similar to observations that more abstract information can be extracted by layers in the late stage of deep neural networks. When the total size of the reservoir is fixed, tradeoff between the number of sub-reservoirs and the size of each sub-reservoir needs to be carefully considered, due to the degraded ability of individual sub-reservoirs at small sizes.

Prediction based on Irregularly Sampled Time Series (ISTS) is of wide concern in the real-world applications. For more accurate prediction, the methods had better grasp more data characteristics. Different from ordinary time series, ISTS is characterised with irregular time intervals of intra-series and different sampling rates of inter-series. However, existing methods have suboptimal predictions due to artificially introducing new dependencies in a time series and biasedly learning relations among time series when modeling these two characteristics. In this work, we propose a novel Time Encoding (TE) mechanism. TE can embed the time information as time vectors in the complex domain. It has the the properties of absolute distance and relative distance under different sampling rates, which helps to represent both two irregularities of ISTS. Meanwhile, we create a new model structure named Time Encoding Echo State Network (TE-ESN). It is the first ESNs-based model that can process ISTS data. Besides, TE-ESN can incorporate long short-term memories and series fusion to grasp horizontal and vertical relations. Experiments on one chaos system and three real-world datasets show that TE-ESN performs better than all baselines and has better reservoir property.